The global economy has proven resilient so far this year, resulting in a slight upward revision of real GDP growth projections for 2024. The latest Euromonitor forecast puts real GDP growth at 2.9% in 2024.

Better-than-expected performance in the US and China are primary drivers of the improved outlook. Easing inflation, improved supply conditions and strong labour markets also continue to fuel overall economic activity.

However, growth estimates remain relatively stagnant and lower than historical levels due to the impact of high interest rates and cost pressures. Businesses and consumers continue to exhibit diligent spending behaviour amid the current financial environment. And numerous headwinds persist—geopolitical tensions threaten the disinflation trend, and a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy could arise.

Major economies are stabilising but face ongoing challenges. The US economy continues to top expectations, leading to a considerable revision in the real GDP growth forecast for 2024. But elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and high consumer debts will weigh on performance through the remainder of the year.

The Eurozone remains stagnant with an acceleration expected in 2025 as inflation moderates and anticipated rate cuts take effect. In China, a lingering real estate crisis and subdued private consumption restrict economic expansion, but the 2024 outlook was revised upward on the back of stronger investments so far this year.

Emerging economies are expected to outpace advanced economies in 2024 with real GDP growth projections of 4.0% and 1.4%, respectively.

Yet, growth remains subdued in certain Latin American emerging markets like Mexico and Brazil. Softening domestic and external demands, fiscal consolidation and still-tight monetary policy are behind this stagnation.

Asia Pacific continues to drive global economic prospects. India is the fastest-growing major economy at 6.3% in 2024—an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the Q1 update. Vietnam and the Philippines are also contributing to strong regional performance, growing more than 5.0% each this year.

Economic conditions should continue to normalise in the second half of the year as inflation eases and monetary policy loosens. Regained global momentum of 3.1% real GDP growth is expected in 2025.