Brazil
Economic momentum in Brazil is expected to pick up with real GDP growth at 1.8% for 2024 based on the latest Euromonitor forecast—an increase of 0.4 percentage points from Q1 estimates. However, this projection sits below the 2.9% rate in 2023 due to the impact of high interest rates.
Inflation continues to decline with a marginal downward revision to 3.8% for 2024. A gradual ease of inflation, lower borrowing costs and a rise in minimum wages will help alleviate high costs of living and support consumer purchasing power.
The economic outlook for Brazil remains highly vulnerable to numerous domestic and external factors.
Brazil relies heavily on its commodity exports to China, so a significant slowdown of China’s economy could hurt Brazilian export revenues due to lower demand.
Brazil also faces the Latin America downturn scenario (15% probability), which depicts a potential deterioration of economic conditions in the region due to falling commodity prices, a worsening debt crisis and a rise in political instability. This scenario could hurt investor confidence and result in capital flight.
Brazil: Real GDP Growth and Inflation
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
Note: Annual rates in percentages. Revisions in percentage points.
