US
The US economy continues to outpace expectations and outperform other advanced economies—lowering the risk of a recession. Persistent labour market strength supports ongoing employment gains, which fuels consumer income and spending growth.
A slight slowdown is still expected this year due to scrutinous consumers and business leaders in a high-cost, high-rate environment. The real GDP growth forecast sits at 2.1% for 2024—an upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from Q1 but below the robust 2.5% rate in 2023.
Persistently high housing costs and renewed energy price pressures led to an upward revision of the inflation projection in the latest Euromonitor forecast update, which puts the rate at 2.9% for 2024.
Despite renewed price pressures, disinflation should resume for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 as high interest rates continue to take effect. Economic resilience and labour market strength will continue to dictate the trajectory of inflation in the quarters ahead.
The US faces several downside risks despite the improved outlook for this year. Global spillovers from geopolitical tensions or potential trade disruptions threaten economic growth.
US: Real GDP Growth and Inflation
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
Note: Annual rates in percentages. Revisions in percentage points.
