The November 2024 update shows a healthy beauty and personal care industry albeit threatened by negative pressures due to geopolitical turmoil and the arising probability of commodity price hikes. Cautious consumers are looking for value for money, affecting growth potential, and China, along with most developed countries, was revised downwards. However, personal care categories showed an improvement as heat waves resulted in a more frequent body care routine.
Delivery
This report comes in PPT.
Key findings
Beauty and personal care outlook in 2024 and 2025 is healthy, but with negative pressures in the near term
Beauty and personal care players should anticipate commodity price hikes (eg a 20-30% probability in a one-year horizon) as a result of geopolitical tensions, a China slowdown and increased consumer price-sensitivity that may impact purchase frequency and beauty routines. Price hikes negatively impact forecast growth as beauty shoppers focus on “more for less”, making multifunctional products an appealing option for cash-strapped consumers.
China, along with most developed markets, show a downgrade revision for 2024
Euromonitor’s Forecast Model adjusted projections for beauty and personal care growth in 2024 downward in 37 out of the 52 observed markets, as geopolitical tensions increase uncertainty and consumers become more cautious in spending. China stands out as significantly impacting the forecast for overall beauty and personal care, as value-focused consumers in China remain the new norm amid a slowing economy and lower spending.
Some categories were revised upwards, such as deodorants and colour cosmetics
The November 2024 update saw deodorants revised upwards amidst warmer weather, since more heat weaves worldwide mean more sweating and more intensive usage of deodorants. Climate change also expands the potential of mature categories, including soap and shower gels. Colour cosmetics was also adjusted upwards for growth in 2024 and 2025 but may see long-term impact from affordable luxury as price-sensitive consumers gravitate to them based on pricing accessibility.
Beauty industry players cite raw material and production costs as major challenges in 2024, which are likely to persist in 2025
Rising cost of raw materials and rising cost of production/distribution are the top two factors beauty and personal care respondents cited as impacting their business in 2024, followed by inflation. However, beauty respondents remain confident about 2025 performance and their ability to embrace new needs by capitalising on AI and stronger consumer segmentation methods.
Scope
About this briefing
Key findings
Beauty and personal care outlook is healthy, but with negative pressures in the near term
Skin care outlook shows decelerated dynamism, especially driven by China
China, along with most developed markets, shows downwards revision for 2024
Value-focused consumers in China the new norm amid slowing economy and lower spending
Deodorants revised upwards amidst warmer weather
Price hikes negatively impact forecast as beauty shoppers focus on “more for less”…
…making multifunctional beauty products an appealing option for consumers
Colour cosmetics adjusted upwards, but may see long-term impact from affordable luxury
Beauty industry players cite raw material and production costs as major challenges in 2024…
…but remain confident about 2025 performance and their ability to embrace new needs
Global baseline outlook: Growth prospects are stable, but below potential
Global inflation outlook: On track to be back to target in 2025
Adverse risks to global growth continue to broaden
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter - AE
Real GDP annual growth forecasts and revisions from last quarter - EMDE
Inflation forecasts
Global Fragmentation scenario: Intensified trade protectionism could slow global growth
Data and reporting timeline
Beauty and Personal Care
This is the aggregation of baby and child-specific products, bath & shower, colour cosmetics, deodorants, depilatories, fragrances, hair care, men's grooming, oral care, skin care and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
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